By analysing the long term historical records we can determine what the climate was like when we
had similar conditions in the past.
Hindcast Skill
For each climate driver the skill is calculated by comparing the modelled hindcasts with the observed values
for the same region and season using the Australian Gridded Climate Data. For the current set of models
the Skill is calculated using the hindcast values from 1993-2016.
- For the Chance of Above the Median forecasts the skill is determined by using a Hit Score (Percent correct)
where a forecasts can be either Right or Wrong (categorical)
- For the Anomaly Mean forecasts the skill
is calculated using the Linear Error in Probability Space (LEPS) which is a scoring system that awards forecasts
for being closer to the observed values and penalises the score for being further away.
Please note that there are many different skills testing algorithms which can be used in this framework